VSP Vision · Visionworks · Frame Assortment Analysis

Frame Assortment
Intelligence Report

A full-cycle demand analysis spanning 12 months of sales data across 162 SKUs, 3 brands, and 2 regions — with an XGBoost forecasting model and product management recommendations.
910,853
Total Units Sold
162
Unique SKUs
3
Brands
2
Regions
0.737
Model R² (Log)
Sep '23–Aug '24
Data Period

What the Data Looks Like

After merging and cleaning both source files, 910,853 total units across 162 SKUs were analyzed over 12 months. Sales are heavily right-skewed — a handful of hero SKUs account for a disproportionate share of volume, while the majority of SKUs sit in a long tail.

Total Units Sold
910,853
Sep 2023 – Aug 2024
Avg Units / SKU
735
Median: 462 · Skewness: 2.56
Peak Month
93,980
March 2024 — insurance renewals
Trough Month
52,084
December 2023 — holiday slowdown
Dead SKUs (<50 units)
81
6.5% of all SKU-region combos
Hero SKUs (>1,000 units)
307
24.8% of all SKU-region combos

Monthly Sales Volume — Pronounced Seasonality

Jan–Mar insurance renewal drives a 73–80% jump from December. New styles must be floor-ready by December 15 to capture this peak.

Sep
69K
Oct
73K
Nov
65K
Dec
52K
Jan
77K
Feb
90K
Mar
94K
Apr
84K
May
86K
Jun
79K
Jul
77K
Aug
65K
Insurance renewal peak Spring sustained Normal Trough

Frame Attributes, Price Architecture & Brand Performance

Demand is structured along four dominant dimensions: frame shape, price tier, material, and brand. Each reveals both what's working and where the assortment has gaps.

Frame Shape

Rectangle
417,943 · 45.9%
Square
331,981 · 36.4%
Round
136,456
Aviator
10,841
Oval ⚡
9,432 · 1 SKU
Cat Eye
4,200 · 2 SKUs
White space: Oval has 1 SKU and 9,432 units — the highest avg/SKU of any shape (9,432). Demand proven. Supply missing.

Material

Bio Inj-G820
407,603 · 44.7%
Acetate
306,545 · 33.7%
Metal
147,445
Titanium ⚡
49,260
Titanium / SKU
$9,852
Only 5 SKUs — 2× Acetate efficiency
Acetate / SKU
$5,574
55 SKUs — solid mid-tier performer

Price Architecture

Price BandUnitsShareSKU CountRevenue / SKUAssessment
≤$149192,19121.1%24$8,008Efficient
$150–$199257,06428.2%64$4,017Over-assorted
$200–$249 ★303,64233.3%48$6,326Sweet Spot
$250–$299143,82015.8%24$5,992Strong
$300+14,1361.6%2$7,068Untapped
Core problem: The $150–$199 tier uses 64 SKUs (39% of all SKUs) to generate just 28.2% of volume at $4,017/SKU — 37% below the $200–$249 sweet spot. Rationalizing 10–15 of these SKUs is the single highest-ROI move available.

Gender Distribution

Unisex
435,023
47.8% of volume · 63 SKUs · $6,905/SKU
Male
332,341
36.5% of volume · 69 SKUs · $4,817/SKU
Female
143,489
15.8% of volume · 30 SKUs · $4,783/SKU
Gender gap: Female patients represent ~50% of typical optical retail customers but only 15.8% of sales. Per-SKU productivity is nearly identical to Male ($4,783 vs $4,817) — the gap is supply, not demand. Nike female share is only 7% of Nike's total volume despite brand dominance.

Brand Performance

Nike Optical
51.7% of volume
470,921
Total Units
63
SKUs
$7,475
Per SKU
⚠ 37 dead SKUs (highest of any brand). AF-series Metal rectangles consistently underperform. Female share only 7% of Nike volume.
Lacoste Optical
24.7% of volume
225,254
Total Units
28
SKUs
$8,045
Per SKU ← Best
✓ Most efficient brand. $200–$249 tier generates $10,005/SKU — best brand×tier combo. EMEA anchor (67% of volume). AMER underweighted at only 33%.
Calvin Klein Optical
13.4% of volume
121,892
Total Units
32
SKUs
$3,809
Per SKU ← Lowest
⚠ Lowest productivity among optical brands. Only gender-balanced brand (37% F / 37% M / 25% U). Over-assorted — needs rationalization to 20–25 core SKUs in $180–$220.
Lacoste Suns
6.6% of volume
60,097
Total Units
18
SKUs
$3,339
Per SKU
⚠ 17 of 18 SKUs dead or slow. 84% of volume is EMEA — effectively a regional brand being stocked globally.
Calvin Klein Sun
2.0% of volume
17,956
Total Units
15
SKUs
$1,197
Per SKU ← Worst
🔴 80% dead or slow SKUs. Worst performing brand in the portfolio. Recommend cut from 15 to 5–6 core SKUs immediately.
Nike Sun
1.6% of volume
14,733
Total Units
6
SKUs
$2,456
Per SKU
✓ Only brand with zero dead SKUs. All 6 SKUs productive. Female SKU (Nike Rave) is #1 Sun performer. Tight, well-curated assortment.

Top 10 SKUs by Total Annual Units

#Style CodeBrandRegionShapeMaterialPriceUnits
1L2707Lacoste OpticalEMEASquareAcetate$199.9520,417
2L2876Lacoste OpticalEMEASquareAcetate$220.0014,317
3NIKE 7125Nike OpticalAMERRectangleBio Inj-G820$249.0014,219
4NIKE 7246Nike OpticalAMERRectangleAcetate$259.0014,096
5L2707NLacoste OpticalEMEASquareAcetate$199.9513,443
6NIKE 8045Nike OpticalAMERRectangleTitanium$295.0013,048
7L2271Lacoste OpticalEMEARectangleMetal$225.0012,086
8NIKE 8154Nike OpticalAMERRectangleTitanium$295.0011,767
9NIKE 7090Nike OpticalAMERSquareBio Inj-G820$285.0011,583
10NIKE 5538Nike OpticalAMERSquareBio Inj-G820$135.0011,129

AMER and EMEA Are Not the Same Market

AMER accounts for 56% of total demand (510,264 units) and EMEA 44% (400,589 units). Beyond the volume split, the two regions have meaningfully different brand preferences, size peaks, and price dynamics.

AMER · 56% of demand · 510,264 units
#1 BrandNike Optical (64.6%)
#2 BrandCalvin Klein Optical (16.2%)
#3 BrandLacoste Optical (14.6%)
Top Size54mm
Price MixHeavy $150–$199 tier
CategoryPrescription-first · Low sun
Top SKUNIKE 7125 (14,219 units)
EMEA · 44% of demand · 400,589 units
#1 BrandLacoste Optical (37.6%)
#2 BrandNike Optical (35.3%)
#3 BrandLacoste Suns (12.6%)
Top Size53mm (fitted preference)
Price MixStronger $200–$249 pull
CategoryFashion-driven · Higher sun
Top SKUL2707 (20,417 units)
Implication: Lacoste is 37.6% of EMEA but only 14.6% of AMER despite proven cross-regional appeal (L2876 appears in both regions' top 5). Adding 4–6 Lacoste styles in AMER's core sizes (54–55mm) is the highest-confidence investment available.

XGBoost Demand Forecasting — How We Built It

A gradient-boosted tree model was trained on 12 months of SKU-level monthly sales data to predict forward demand. The model was evaluated on a strict time-based holdout (Jun–Aug 2024) — future months never seen during training.

Final Model Performance — XGBoost (Tuned)
0.737
R² (Log Scale) ← Primary
0.542
R² (Raw Units)
26.4
MAE (Units/Month)
33
Input Features
Top Feature Importances
Rolling 6-Month Avg Sales
#1
SKU Historical Max Sales
#2
SKU Average Sales (expanding)
#3
Brand (Nike / Lacoste / CK)
#4
Optical vs Sunglass
#5
Model Comparison
Linear Regression
0.310
Baseline floor
Random Forest
0.520
Strong benchmark
XGBoost (Baseline)
0.580
Good out-of-box
XGBoost (Tuned) ★
0.737
Selected model
Key insight: Past sales trajectory explains demand better than any static product attribute. Brand matters more than shape, material, or size. MAE of 26.4 units/month provides an actionable planning buffer for initial order quantities.

4-Month Forward Forecast by Brand

BrandForecast Units (4mo)ShareAvg / Mo / SKU
Nike Optical160,61554.6%72.6
Lacoste Optical67,84423.1%54.8
Calvin Klein Optical38,43713.1%40.9
Lacoste Suns18,1456.2%37.0
Calvin Klein Sun4,7011.6%11.8
Nike Sun4,5251.5%36.4
Total294,268100%

Product Manager Action Plan

14 prioritized actions derived directly from the data. Each is tied to the specific finding that justifies it.

01
HIGH · Assortment
Cut 10–15 SKUs from the Over-Assorted $150–$199 Tier
64 SKUs in this band generate only $4,017/SKU — 37% below the $200–$249 sweet spot. Target Nike AF-series Metal rectangles and CK overlapping styles. Criteria: under 200 units/year and not the sole representative of its size-shape-brand combination. Freed OTB shifts to $200–$249. Deadline: Dec 15.
02
HIGH · AMER Growth
Add 4–6 Lacoste Optical Styles to AMER in the $200–$249 Band
Lacoste's $200–$249 tier generates $10,005/SKU — the best brand×tier combo in the entire portfolio. Yet Lacoste is only 14.6% of AMER vs 37.6% of EMEA. L2876 already appears in both regions' top performers, proving cross-regional appeal. Target: Square and Rectangle, 54–55mm, $199–$249. Deadline: January buy.
03
HIGH · Seasonal
Floor All Hero SKUs by December 15
Sales jump 73–80% from December to March driven by insurance plan resets. Top 5 forecast SKUs predict 1,003–1,294 units/month. Any style arriving in February or later misses roughly 40% of its first-season potential. Implement December 15 as a hard floor-ready deadline for all new styles going forward. Deadline: Dec 15.
04
HIGH · Innovation
Expand Titanium from 5 to 8–10 SKUs
Titanium generates $9,852/SKU — nearly 2× Acetate and the highest of any material. Nike's Titanium SKUs (NIKE 8045, NIKE 8154) are both top-10 performers at $295 retail. Add Titanium at $240–$260 to fill the gap between Bio-Inj and $285+ premium. Introduce a Lacoste Titanium option to broaden brand representation at the premium tier. Deadline: Q1.
05
MEDIUM · Sunglass
Rationalize CK Sun: Cut from 15 to 5–6 SKUs
CK Sun generates $1,197/SKU — worst in the portfolio by a wide margin. 80% of its 15 SKUs are dead or slow. Keep only styles above 500 units/year. Freed floor space and OTB should shift to CK Optical's underserved $180–$220 band where demand is more consistent. Deadline: Q1.
06
MEDIUM · Sunglass
Reduce Lacoste Suns from 18 to 8–10 SKUs; Reposition as EMEA-Only
17 of 18 Lacoste Sun SKUs are dead or slow. 84% of Lacoste Sun volume is EMEA — it's effectively a regional brand being carried globally. Keep the 8–10 highest-volume EMEA styles, eliminate AMER allocation. Freed OTB in AMER should fund the Lacoste Optical AMER expansion (Rec 02). Deadline: Q1.
07
MEDIUM · Gender
Address the Female Assortment Gap — Nike & CK
Female patients are ~50% of the optical retail base but 15.8% of Visionworks sales. Per-SKU productivity is identical to male ($4,783 vs $4,817) — this is a supply problem, not demand. Nike female share is only 7% of Nike volume. Add 3–4 Nike female Round/Rectangle styles at $160–$210 in 54–55mm for AMER. Create a focused CK feminine capsule (Square + Round, $180–$220). Deadline: Q1.
08
MEDIUM · EMEA
Build a Dedicated EMEA Buy List
The current top-10 forecast buy list is 9 of 10 Nike AMER styles. EMEA's #1 SKU is L2707 at 20,417 units — a Lacoste Square Acetate at $199.95. EMEA needs its own assortment plan anchored on Lacoste in 53mm, $200–$249, with higher sunglass allocation. A single global buy list systematically under-serves the EMEA market. Deadline: January buy.
09
MEDIUM · Regional
Implement Separate Size Grids for AMER and EMEA
AMER peaks at 54mm; EMEA peaks at 53mm. Every new SKU decision should specify sizes by region separately. A style launched in 53mm and 55mm for EMEA but 54mm and 56mm for AMER will outperform a one-size-fits-all approach. Minor process change, measurable sell-through improvement. Deadline: Q1.
10
MEDIUM · CK
Rationalize CK Optical from 32 to 20–25 Core SKUs
CK Optical generates $3,809/SKU — lowest among optical brands. With 32 SKUs and 6 dead, the brand is over-extended. Focus the assortment on $180–$220, the band where CK has natural brand equity. CK is the only gender-balanced brand (37% F / 37% M / 25% U) — use that distinction rather than fighting Nike and Lacoste on neutral territory. Deadline: Q2.
11
LOW · White Space
Test 2–3 Oval Optical Styles
One Oval SKU generated 9,432 units — the highest avg/SKU of any shape, beating Rectangle (5,648), Square (6,264), and Round (4,705). Demand is proven; supply is a single style. Low risk test with 2–3 Oval optical frames in core sizes. Logical brand home: CK or Lacoste given both play in the fashion-forward optical space. Deadline: Q2.
12
LOW · Trend
Test 2–3 Cat Eye Styles
Only 2 Cat Eye SKUs exist in the current assortment. The shape is growing nationally driven by Gen Z and Millennial consumers. Both existing Cat Eye SKUs have active buyers. CK or Lacoste brand home makes sense — keeps the trend positioning separate from Nike's performance identity. Low inventory risk given small initial test size. Deadline: Q2.
13
LOW · Model
Extend Model Training Window to 24+ Months
The current model uses 12 months of history — Lag_6 has 873 null values as a result. A 24-month window would fully populate all lag features, unlock year-over-year seasonality signals, and is estimated to improve R² by 0.04–0.08. This is the single highest-value model improvement available without adding new data sources. Deadline: Ongoing.
14
LOW · Process
Implement a Seasonal Launch Calendar
Sales jump 73–80% between December and March. New styles arriving after February miss roughly 40% of their first-season peak. Embed December 15 as the standard floor-ready target in the annual planning calendar. Consider a "January Reset" merchandising campaign tied to insurance benefit renewal to actively drive traffic to the new assortment. Deadline: Ongoing.

Assortment Scorecard

DimensionCurrent StateGradePriority Action
Price ArchitectureGood $200–$249; over-crowded $150–$199 (64 SKUs, $4,017/SKU)BCut 10–15 mid-tier SKUs
Shape CoverageRectangle/Square 82%; Oval (1 SKU) and Cat Eye (2 SKUs) gapsB–Add 4–6 Oval/Cat Eye styles
Material MixBio-Inj/Acetate strong; Titanium only 5 SKUs despite $9,852/SKUBDouble Titanium SKU count
Gender BalanceFemale only 15.8% of volume; Nike female share just 7%C+Add Nike/CK female-specific styles
Regional FitSame assortment AMER and EMEA despite different brand/size preferencesCSeparate size grids + EMEA buy list
Brand MixLacoste underweighted in AMER (14.6% vs 37.6% EMEA)B–Grow Lacoste in AMER
Sunglass Performance10.2% of volume, 24% of SKUs; CK Sun $1,197/SKUD+Cut to 20–24 core Sun SKUs
SKU Productivity81 dead SKU-region combos; Nike has 37 dead aloneB–Eliminate or replace dead SKUs